An Education Carol

I wrote this post in December of 2022 on my linkedin account. We are well into the season of submissions for next years admission considerations. While the comparison between GED/PhD is certainly cheesy, it remains a valid distinction.

To stay within Dickens parable, I have added a final section to address the ghost of education, future. Choose wisely.

Jedediah (GED to his friends) has real problems handling government school. Jed’s parents have succumbed to the futility of pushing back against the system and settled for mediocre day care with a healthy dose of sports to keep him occupied. Jed’s not a bad kid, but he tends to get pushed toward an underperforming crowd of malcontents, which includes a few bad apples. GED is treading water at best, hoping to age out of the system before it ruins him. At worst, he could get caught in the intake funnel for the school to prison pipeline.

Phineas Frederick is too smart for his own good (his friends call him PhreD). School is an easy game. Regurgitating approved facts for authoritarians while sitting is second nature for him. The truth is what they say it is, and they only need to hear it repeated. Phred can handle the abstractions of mathematics well enough to get by, covering weaknesses with memorization and socially approved conventions. Phred is college material and he knows it.

In 1968, GED gets right to work. He doesn’t stand out in the millions of boomers, success might follow a combination of luck, hard work and long hours. Promotions will be few and raises are grudgingly earned. If he can develop his skills via on the job training or mastery of a niche skill, Jed will likely do OK. GED is at much more risk for injury and chemical exposure and he earns the scars of a blue collar life. And GED is stuck with corrupt pension funds for retirement.

PhreD on the other hand faces little academic competition. He carries a part time job through college, transfers some credits forward and gets an advanced degree that makes him stand out. The workload takes its toll on his health and his eyes, but he graduates without debt and is well on his way to an improved standard of living. PhreD has made a wise investment in his future, given the labor market and education costs of 1968. PhreD might get into management, get early access to 401k retirement plans, perhaps even stock options. 

Phred advances his earnings power and gains $500k above and beyond GED in the next ten years. 

Fifty years on, PhreD and GED’s lookalike grandkids are in similar straits in 2018 and the apples have not fallen far from the trees. But the costs in the labor and education markets are radically different now than 1968.

PhD (PhreD’s grandson) has been developing his college prep resume since baby steps. All his credentials are carefully arranged to impress. PhD’s plan is to get the highest socially ranked credentials available to him. Since everyone gets government loans, cost is no object. Somewhere in 2028 he will worry about getting a job. By then he will be almost 30, and that’s a lifetime away. Heck, he might be dead by then, why worry! The remote learning during the C19 scare was perfect practice to coast to the finish line and set up for another decade in the college industrial complex.

GED would rather die than suffer another minute of academic nonsense. Schools medicated him into submission to make him more compliant, but he grew wary of the side effects. The thought of another decade of stultifying classroom attendance in pursuit of worthless credentials gags him. GED knows that college will joyfully bury him in debt, and suspects it will have no influence on his success. No diploma mill for him. The C19 scaremongering reinforced for him what a unproductive waste of time government school can be.

I wonder what 2028 looks like?

PhD has a decent academic record but his specialty area is suffering a temporary setback and there is little hiring. His options are switch degrees, spend 18 months as a post-doc, or take a much lower position for which he is overqualified risking low salary expectations for the rest of his career. PhD has no savings, no health care, no retirement, no children, and a mountain of debt around an uncertain future. PhD is pushing 30 and has only a vague notion of earning a living, confusing it with applying for grants. PhD has never held a full time job.

GED made $21 an hour to start and saw rapid advancement with his employer. GED’s employer paid for his training needs, no cost to him. GED has an excellent 401k with a small amount put by for retirement and a middling health care plan. GED has a 10 year employment track record, a home mortgage and car loan, his kids are coming out of the employer sponsored day care and the oldest is home schooled part time and has shared sports programs with similar kids. GED is considering stretching a hobby into a part time job, once the kids get older.

The environment changed, and as a result PhD and GED earnings power reversed between 2028 and 1978. Labor markets are much tighter so GED got a premium just for being on time, while PhD took on debt. PhD faced a glut of garbage diplomas, useless credentials, he overpaid to acquire these bits of paper with government debt; competing fiercely with feckless fellow students for the privilege. PhD sold his present and mortgaged his future for something of little economic value.

GED is dismayed to find PhD advocating for student loan forgiveness! PhD wants GED to pay for his useless government credentials! Blame the kids or change the system?

To continue the allegory: What do the ghosts of Christmas future portend?

For those of mercenary inclination, where is the bang for the buck? Which schools stand up their graduates for success? Which drag their unwitting marks down into debt slavery and perhaps a second effort?

Ranking 4,500 Colleges by ROI (2022)

While the Georgetown effort is an improvement over the status quo…

There is a completely new, but very old ghost of the future nearby. Those of us of a certain age might remember middle and high school kids of technical talent… er, nerds. If you passed the MCSE, you could administer networks of great value for real money. The only credential that mattered is if you could do the work and pass the Microsoft exam for Systems Engineer. No government credentials required.

Palantir has made a similar offer.

https://www.palantir.com/careers/meritocracy-fellowship

The Meritocracy Fellowship

Skip the debt. Skip the indoctrination. Get the Palantir degree.

This is but one example. Your mileage will vary. I gave up $3.50/hr and cut my living expenses with dormitories and bulk food to less than $2k/year. Matriculating was a cheap decision.

It is much harder to dig a $250k hole in lost salary, while paying for credits of dubious value, for a career that might not materialize, or even pay for itself.

Hey, lets be careful out there.

Don’t pay too much for that muffler.